{"built": "2026-10-28T16:50:42+00:00", "nodes": [{"id": "ru-ua-oil", "kind": "trigger", "label": {"en": "Reported oil-facility incidents · Russia / Ukraine", "uk": "Події на нафтових об’єктах · Росія / Україна", "ru": "События на нефтяных объектах · Россия / Украина", "ar": "حوادث منشآت النفط · روسيا / أوكرانيا", "fa": "رویدادهای تأسیسات نفتی · روسیه / اوکراین"}, "trigger": {"field": "targets", "kinds": ["oil-facility"], "countries": ["RU", "UA"], "window_days": 30, "min_dossiers": 3}}, {"id": "fuel-exports", "kind": "effect", "label": {"en": "Fuel production & export restrictions", "uk": "Виробництво пального й експортні обмеження", "ru": "Производство топлива и ограничения экспорта", "ar": "إنتاج الوقود وقيود التصدير", "fa": "تولید سوخت و محدودیت صادرات"}, "indicator": {"name": "IEA Oil Market Report", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024", "license": "CC BY 4.0 (web overview; full report has separate terms)", "frequency": "Monthly", "latest": null}}, {"id": "fuel-prices", "kind": "outcome", "label": {"en": "Fuel prices in import markets", "uk": "Ціни пального на імпортних ринках", "ru": "Цены топлива на импортных рынках", "ar": "أسعار الوقود في أسواق الاستيراد", "fa": "قیمت سوخت در بازارهای واردکننده"}, "indicator": {"name": "IEA oil market overview", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024", "license": "CC BY 4.0 (web overview; full report has separate terms)", "frequency": "Monthly", "latest": null}}, {"id": "red-sea-proxy", "kind": "trigger", "label": {"en": "Maritime reports · Yemen / Red Sea region", "uk": "Морські повідомлення · Ємен / Червоне море", "ru": "Морские сообщения · Йемен / Красное море", "ar": "تقارير بحرية · اليمن / البحر الأحمر", "fa": "گزارش‌های دریایی · یمن / دریای سرخ"}, "trigger": {"field": "category", "kinds": ["maritime"], "countries": ["YE", "ER", "DJ"], "window_days": 30, "min_dossiers": 3}}, {"id": "suez-transits", "kind": "effect", "label": {"en": "Suez / Bab el-Mandeb traffic", "uk": "Рух через Суец / Баб-ель-Мандеб", "ru": "Движение через Суэц / Баб-эль-Мандеб", "ar": "حركة السويس / باب المندب", "fa": "تردد سوئز / باب‌المندب"}, "indicator": {"name": "EIA Red Sea shipping analysis", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/TodayinEnergy/detail.php?id=63446", "license": "Public domain EIA text; third-party Vortexa data rights reserved; no underlying dataset redistributed", "frequency": "Ad hoc; underlying transit series not ingested", "latest": null}}, {"id": "freight-rates", "kind": "effect", "label": {"en": "Freight costs & journey times", "uk": "Вартість перевезень і час у дорозі", "ru": "Стоимость перевозок и время в пути", "ar": "تكاليف الشحن ومدد الرحلات", "fa": "هزینه حمل و زمان سفر"}, "indicator": {"name": "EIA route comparison", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/TodayinEnergy/detail.php?id=62263", "license": "Public domain EIA text; third-party Vortexa data rights reserved; no underlying dataset redistributed", "frequency": "Ad hoc", "latest": null}}, {"id": "food-prices", "kind": "outcome", "label": {"en": "Food import prices", "uk": "Ціни імпорту продовольства", "ru": "Цены импорта продовольствия", "ar": "أسعار واردات الغذاء", "fa": "قیمت واردات غذا"}, "indicator": {"name": "FAO Food Price Index (candidate; access blocked)", "url": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/", "license": "Unverified; robots request returned 403; no data ingested", "frequency": "Monthly", "latest": null}}, {"id": "conflict-proxy", "kind": "trigger", "label": {"en": "Conflict reports · Iran / Israel / neighbours", "uk": "Повідомлення про конфлікт · Іран / Ізраїль / сусіди", "ru": "Сообщения о конфликте · Иран / Израиль / соседи", "ar": "تقارير نزاع · إيران / إسرائيل / الجوار", "fa": "گزارش‌های درگیری · ایران / اسرائیل / همسایگان"}, "trigger": {"field": "category", "kinds": ["conflict"], "countries": ["IR", "IL", "IQ", "JO", "LB"], "window_days": 7, "min_dossiers": 3}}, {"id": "aviation-advisories", "kind": "effect", "label": {"en": "Conflict-zone aviation advisories", "uk": "Авіаційні поради щодо зон конфлікту", "ru": "Авиационные рекомендации по зонам конфликта", "ar": "نشرات الطيران لمناطق النزاع", "fa": "هشدارهای هوانوردی مناطق درگیری"}, "indicator": {"name": "EASA Conflict Zone Information Bulletins", "url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs/2025-02-r2", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "frequency": "Event driven", "latest": null}}, {"id": "aviation-rerouting", "kind": "outcome", "label": {"en": "Civil aviation rerouting", "uk": "Зміна маршрутів цивільної авіації", "ru": "Изменение маршрутов гражданской авиации", "ar": "تغيير مسارات الطيران المدني", "fa": "تغییر مسیر هوانوردی غیرنظامی"}, "indicator": {"name": "EUROCONTROL network operations reports", "url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2025-07/eurocontrol-network-operations-report-june-2025.pdf", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; reuse terms for this report unconfirmed; short attributed excerpt only; review required", "frequency": "Monthly", "latest": null}}], "chains": [{"id": "energy-ru-ua", "status": "review", "title": {"en": "Energy disruption → fuel exports → prices", "uk": "Енергетичні перебої → експорт пального → ціни", "ru": "Перебои энергии → экспорт топлива → цены", "ar": "تعطل الطاقة ← صادرات الوقود ← الأسعار", "fa": "اختلال انرژی ← صادرات سوخت ← قیمت‌ها"}, "reviewReason": {"en": "Comparison set incomplete: independent precedents and counterexamples are missing. Definitions apply to future collection from 28 October 2026, not a preregistered historical sample. No probability is available.", "uk": "Набір порівняння неповний: бракує незалежних прецедентів і контрприкладів. Визначення діють для збору з 28 жовтня 2026 року, а не для попередньо зареєстрованої історичної вибірки. Ймовірність відсутня.", "ru": "Набор сравнения неполон: не хватает независимых прецедентов и контрпримеров. Определения действуют для сбора с 28 октября 2026 года, а не для заранее зарегистрированной исторической выборки. Вероятность отсутствует.", "ar": "مجموعة المقارنة غير مكتملة: تنقص سوابق مستقلة وأمثلة مضادة. تنطبق التعريفات على الجمع من 28 أكتوبر 2026، وليست عينة تاريخية مسجلة مسبقاً. لا احتمال متاح.", "fa": "مجموعه مقایسه ناقص است: سوابق مستقل و مثال‌های نقض کم است. تعریف‌ها برای گردآوری از ۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۶ هستند، نه نمونه تاریخی از پیش ثبت‌شده. احتمالی در دسترس نیست."}, "chainPrecedents": [], "links": [{"id": "energy-export", "from": "ru-ua-oil", "to": "fuel-exports", "mechanism": {"en": "Disrupted refining can reduce fuel supply and prompt export restrictions; repairs and spare capacity can offset losses.", "uk": "Порушення переробки може скоротити постачання й спричинити експортні обмеження; ремонт і резервні потужності можуть компенсувати втрати.", "ru": "Сбои переработки могут сократить поставки и вызвать ограничения экспорта; ремонт и резервные мощности могут компенсировать потери.", "ar": "قد يقلص تعطل التكرير إمدادات الوقود ويدفع لقيود تصدير؛ وقد تعوّض الإصلاحات والطاقة الاحتياطية الخسائر.", "fa": "اختلال پالایش ممکن است عرضه سوخت را کاهش دهد و به محدودیت صادرات بینجامد؛ تعمیر و ظرفیت ذخیره می‌تواند زیان را جبران کند."}, "definition": {"cause": "At least 3 oil-facility dossiers in 30 days in one country (RU or UA). Activation is a broad screening proxy: refinery/terminal identity and confirmed outage require manual verification. Do not pool RU and UA for probability.", "effect": "A new national gasoline export ban or restriction announced within 60 days, compared with rules at episode start.", "window_days": 60, "fixedOn": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Prospective non-overlapping country episodes; start at first eligible trigger after a 60-day quiet period. Include all qualifying episodes and missing observations separately; never count missing as false."}, "sources": [{"url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024", "publisher": "IEA", "date": "2024-04-12", "quote": "Russian refinery outages added to product market unease", "license": "CC BY 4.0 (web overview; full report has separate terms)", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024"}, {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/99968/", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2024-02-29", "quote": "Restrictions on gasoline exports have been introduced for 6M - from March 1 through August 31.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; article path allowed; entire public article read"}, {"url": "https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Russian-Oil-Refining-in-the-Crosshairs.pdf", "publisher": "Oxford Institute for Energy Studies / Andreas Economou and Bill Farren-Price", "date": "2024-04", "quote": "Unit offline, restarted on 21 February.", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and a short attributed excerpt only; no article or underlying data redistribution.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Cover states April 2024, not a publication day. Full 14-page report read. Tables 1–2 separate averted attacks from outages. Model estimates are not direct throughput measurements."}, {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/96633/", "publisher": "Interfax / Russian Energy Ministry", "date": "2023-11-17", "quote": "lift the temporary ban on exports of gasoline from Russia starting on November 17", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; full public article read"}], "cases": [{"date": "2024-02-03", "label": "Russia Q1 2024 oil-facility episode: three verified refinery/processing outages by 3 February; counted once", "observed": true, "measured": "29 February 2024 government announcement: 6M gasoline-export restriction, March 1 through August 31. OIES table 2 dates Ust Luga January 21, Tuapse January 25, Volgograd February 03; Volgograd unit restarted February 21. Baseline: prior gasoline ban lifted November 17, 2023, per the Energy Ministry report.", "source": {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/99968/", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2024-02-29", "quote": "Restrictions on gasoline exports have been introduced for 6M - from March 1 through August 31.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; article path allowed; entire public article read"}, "triggerSources": [{"url": "https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Russian-Oil-Refining-in-the-Crosshairs.pdf", "publisher": "Oxford Institute for Energy Studies / Andreas Economou and Bill Farren-Price", "date": "2024-04", "quote": "Unit offline, restarted on 21 February.", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and a short attributed excerpt only; no article or underlying data redistribution.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Cover states April 2024, not a publication day. Full 14-page report read. Tables 1–2 separate averted attacks from outages. Model estimates are not direct throughput measurements."}], "episodeGroup": "russia-refinery-campaign-2024-q1", "note": "Retrospective effect observation, not proof the strikes caused the decision. OIES documents three affected processing facilities within 30 days; Ust Luga is a condensate splitter. Government cited seasonal demand and planned maintenance. Exact onset / prior 60-day quiet-period screening and original decree still require review; this is not a representative calibrated sample.", "baselineSources": [{"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/96633/", "publisher": "Interfax / Russian Energy Ministry", "date": "2023-11-17", "quote": "lift the temporary ban on exports of gasoline from Russia starting on November 17", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; full public article read"}]}], "comparisonReady": false, "researchExamples": [{"note": "2024-04-12: IEA describes Russian refinery outages and product-market unease. This overview supplies no measured export-ban effect. UA evidence must be collected separately; electrical-grid hits are not oil-facility cases.", "source": {"url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024", "publisher": "IEA", "date": "2024-04-12", "quote": "Russian refinery outages added to product market unease", "license": "CC BY 4.0 (web overview; full report has separate terms)", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024"}}, {"note": "June 2024 analysis: Russian retail fuel prices remained stable; the cited Belarus import was less than 0.5% of one week’s consumption. Counterpoint to inevitable nationwide shortages, not an export-ban counterexample under our definition.", "source": {"url": "https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-oil-refining-attacks", "publisher": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace / Sergey Vakulenko", "date": "2024-06-25", "quote": "less than 0.5 percent of one week’s consumption", "license": "Copyright Carnegie; no open reuse licence verified; short attributed excerpt only", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; read web source"}}, {"date": "2024-05-21", "label": "2024 policy reversal after the refinery campaign", "measured": "21 May 2024: producers permitted to export until June 30; original restriction March 1–August 31.", "note": "Policy relaxation is established. A second independent eligible wave and complete 60-day history without a NEW restriction are not yet matched; not enrolled as observed:false. March and April 2024 hits are part of the same campaign, not independent successes. Measured: 21 May 2024: producers permitted to export until June 30; original restriction March 1–August 31.", "source": {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/102476/", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2024-05-21", "quote": "suspending the temporary ban on gasoline exports for fuel producers until June 30, 2024.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}}, {"date": "2025-01-31", "label": "January 2025: continuing producer exemption", "measured": "31 January 2025: existing non-producer ban extended to February 28; producers still exempt.", "note": "An extension is not automatically a new ban. A January wave and complete subsequent 60-day observation need matching; a single dated statement cannot establish absence over the whole window. Measured: 31 January 2025: existing non-producer ban extended to February 28; producers still exempt.", "source": {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/109510/", "publisher": "Interfax / office of Deputy PM Novak", "date": "2025-01-31", "quote": "The exception will remain in place in February.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}}, {"date": "2025-07-28", "label": "July 2025: producer exemption removed", "measured": "28 July 2025: restrictions extended to producers through 31 August 2025, inclusive.", "note": "A genuinely broader restriction than the pre-existing non-producer ban. Do not enrol until three qualifying refinery outages within the preceding episode, episode onset and independence are verified; original government.ru decree remains unread because the host timed out. Measured: 28 July 2025: restrictions extended to producers through 31 August 2025, inclusive.", "source": {"url": "https://www.interfax.ru/amp/1038471", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2025-07-28", "quote": "ограничения на экспорт бензина на непосредственных производителей нефтепродуктов.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}}, {"date": "2025-09-30", "label": "September 2025: extension, not a fresh independent crisis", "measured": "30 September 2025: gasoline restriction extended to December 31, 2025 for all exporters, including producers.", "note": "Do not count the July, August and September extensions as separate independent refinery crises. A changed expiry alone does not prove a newly triggered ban. Measured: 30 September 2025: gasoline restriction extended to December 31, 2025 for all exporters, including producers.", "source": {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/114048/", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2025-09-30", "quote": "until December 31, 2025 inclusive for all exporters", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}}, {"date": "2025-02-03", "label": "Early-2025 wave: producer exemption retained", "measured": "Reuters: Ryazan refinery hit January 24 (about 350,000 bpd capacity), Andreapol oil pumping station January 29, Volgograd refinery and Astrakhan gas processing February 3. February 27 policy permits producers to export March 1–August 31; July 9 Novak office still confirms no complete ban.", "note": "Candidate counterexample only. Three or more reported oil-facility incidents exist within 30 days, but complete 60-day policy history, exact episode onset and prior quiet period remain unverified. Kstovo is a petrochemical plant, not a confirmed gasoline refinery outage; no substitution of plant capacity for actual lost production. No observed:false inferred from endpoint statements.", "source": {"url": "https://kwsn.com/2025/02/03/factbox-russian-energy-facilities-targeted-by-ukraines-drones/", "publisher": "Reuters via KWSN", "date": "2025-02-03", "quote": "the refinery suspended operations after the attack.", "license": "Copyright Thomson Reuters 2025, publicly published by KWSN; no open licence. Facts and short attributed excerpt only.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}, "policySources": [{"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/110047/", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government press service", "date": "2025-02-27", "quote": "with an exception for exports by companies that actually produce oil products", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}, {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/112592/", "publisher": "Interfax / office of Deputy PM Novak", "date": "2025-07-09", "quote": "no corresponding decision has been made.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}], "episodeGroup": "russia-oil-facilities-2025-q1"}, {"date": "2025-08-10", "label": "Late-summer 2025 wave: policy chronology checked", "measured": "iSANS dates Novokuybyshevsk and Ryazan August 2, Saratov August 10; reports Novokuybyshevsk stopped and Ryazan capacity roughly halved. Producer export restriction already announced July 28 through August 31; September 30 extended it through December 31.", "note": "The July 28 broadening PRECEDES these August attacks and cannot be their consequence. September 30 is 51 days after August 10, but continues an existing gasoline ban; its new diesel/gasoil restrictions are a different product. No new independent gasoline-ban precedent enrolled. Earlier eligible July wave and quiet-period audit remain missing.", "source": {"url": "https://isans.org/energy-sector/attacks-on-the-russian-energy-system-in-august-2025.html", "publisher": "iSANS / Evgeny Makarchuk", "date": "2025-09-05", "quote": "August 2. Oil refineries in Novokuybyshevsk and Ryazan were attacked.", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no full article, images or underlying dataset redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}, "policySources": [{"url": "https://www.interfax.ru/amp/1038471", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2025-07-28", "quote": "ограничения на экспорт бензина на непосредственных производителей нефтепродуктов.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}, {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/114048/", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2025-09-30", "quote": "until December 31, 2025 inclusive for all exporters", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}], "episodeGroup": "russia-oil-facilities-2025-late-summer"}, {"date": "2023-09-21", "label": "August–September 2023: ban established, qualifying wave unresolved", "measured": "Kaluga August 30: 1 empty oil-products reservoir caught fire; Oryol September 17: 1 fuel-tank fire reported by governor. Novak on September 27 dates fuel ban to September 21 and reports domestic exchange-price declines of 20% gasoline and 16% diesel.", "note": "The broad August drone wave is not automatically three verified oil-facility outages. Kaluga report does not identify a processing outage; Reuters could not independently verify Oryol. A third qualifying RU facility and quiet-period audit remain missing. Do not pool Ukrainian refinery strikes with Russia, or substitute domestic exchange prices for EU diesel prices. Not enrolled.", "source": {"url": "https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/08/30/russia-s-defense-ministry-keeps-silent-about-drone-strike-on-pskov-while-claiming-that-uavs-have-been-repelled-across-central-russia", "publisher": "Meduza, relaying Governor Shapsha", "date": "2023-08-30", "quote": "One of them crashed in an empty reservoir used for storing oil products, sparking a fire.", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no full article, images or underlying dataset redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}, "triggerSources": [{"url": "https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263629", "publisher": "Reuters via Business Recorder, relaying Governor Klychkov", "date": "2023-09-17", "quote": "sparking a fire at a fuel tank that was later extinguished", "license": "Copyright Thomson Reuters 2023; no open licence. Facts and short attributed excerpt only.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}], "policySources": [{"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/94944/", "publisher": "Interfax / Deputy PM Novak", "date": "2023-09-27", "quote": "20% drop in exchange prices for gasoline and 16% for diesel", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}], "episodeGroup": "russia-oil-facilities-2023-late-summer"}], "evidenceGaps": ["One retrospective positive case remains. Early-2025 wave now has dated facility and producer-exemption sources, but no complete matched 60-day policy record / quiet-period audit; no counterexample enrolled.", "August–September 2023 has dated Kaluga and Oryol reports and September 21 ban confirmation; three verified qualifying outages and independence are unresolved.", "July 28, 2025 producer restriction predates the reconstructed August wave; September 30 continues the gasoline ban. New diesel restrictions cannot satisfy the gasoline effect. Need a qualifying earlier July wave before counting a second success.", "Original decrees remain unavailable; Interfax relays are attributed and copyrighted. Keep RU and UA separate; comparisonReady remains false."], "rate": {"k": 1, "n": 1, "pct": null, "low": null, "high": null}}, {"id": "export-price", "from": "fuel-exports", "to": "fuel-prices", "mechanism": {"en": "Less export supply may tighten importing markets, but demand and alternative suppliers also set prices.", "uk": "Менший експорт може посилити дефіцит на імпортних ринках, але попит та інші постачальники теж визначають ціни.", "ru": "Сокращение экспорта может усилить дефицит у импортёров, но спрос и другие поставщики тоже влияют на цены.", "ar": "قد يشدد نقص الصادرات أسواق الاستيراد، لكن الطلب والموردين البديلين يؤثرون أيضاً على الأسعار.", "fa": "کاهش عرضه صادراتی ممکن است بازار واردکنندگان را محدود کند، اما تقاضا و تأمین‌کنندگان جایگزین نیز بر قیمت اثر دارند."}, "definition": {"cause": "An independently verified new national gasoline export restriction after an eligible energy episode.", "effect": "EU weekly automotive diesel price (tax-inclusive, EUR/litre) rises at least 5% from last pre-restriction observation within 60 days; freeze series and country weights before enrolment.", "window_days": 60, "fixedOn": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Prospective non-overlapping country episodes; start at first eligible trigger after a 60-day quiet period. Include all qualifying episodes and missing observations separately; never count missing as false."}, "sources": [{"url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024", "publisher": "IEA", "date": "2024-04-12", "quote": "Russian refinery outages added to product market unease", "license": "CC BY 4.0 (web overview; full report has separate terms)", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024"}], "cases": [], "comparisonReady": false, "researchExamples": [{"note": "2024-04-05: IEA reports Brent above $90/bbl, nearly $8/bbl above early March. This is crude, not EU diesel, and several simultaneous drivers are named; not an eligible fuel-price precedent.", "source": {"url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024", "publisher": "IEA", "date": "2024-04-12", "quote": "Russian refinery outages added to product market unease", "license": "CC BY 4.0 (web overview; full report has separate terms)", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2024"}}, {"date": "2024-02-29", "label": "Ban verified, diesel-price series still missing", "measured": "Gasoline export restriction announced February 29, 2024: March 1–August 31.", "note": "This establishes an export-policy observation only. No dated weighted EU diesel price series was collected; not a price case. Measured: Gasoline export restriction announced February 29, 2024: March 1–August 31.", "source": {"url": "https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/99968/", "publisher": "Interfax, relaying the Russian government", "date": "2024-02-29", "quote": "Restrictions on gasoline exports have been introduced for 6M - from March 1 through August 31.", "license": "Copyright Interfax. Republication/redistribution requires permission; no open licence. Short attributed excerpt and facts only; no bulk reuse.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; article path allowed; entire public article read"}}], "evidenceGaps": ["No measured eligible diesel-price precedents or counterexample.", "EU Oil Bulletin series and its licence/access audit remain to be collected."], "rate": {"k": 0, "n": 0, "pct": null, "low": null, "high": null}}], "activation": {"node": "ru-ua-oil", "window_days": 30, "count": 2, "previous": 0, "active": false, "ids": ["auto-ua-2026-10-15-26021d8e6c", "auto-ru-2026-10-15-b47ec9d5f0"]}, "speculative": true}, {"id": "red-sea", "status": "review", "title": {"en": "Red Sea → transits → freight → food", "uk": "Червоне море → рух суден → фрахт → їжа", "ru": "Красное море → движение судов → фрахт → еда", "ar": "البحر الأحمر ← العبور ← الشحن ← الغذاء", "fa": "دریای سرخ ← تردد ← حمل‌ونقل ← غذا"}, "reviewReason": {"en": "Comparison set incomplete: independent precedents and counterexamples are missing. Definitions apply to future collection from 28 October 2026, not a preregistered historical sample. No probability is available.", "uk": "Набір порівняння неповний: бракує незалежних прецедентів і контрприкладів. Визначення діють для збору з 28 жовтня 2026 року, а не для попередньо зареєстрованої історичної вибірки. Ймовірність відсутня.", "ru": "Набор сравнения неполон: не хватает независимых прецедентов и контрпримеров. Определения действуют для сбора с 28 октября 2026 года, а не для заранее зарегистрированной исторической выборки. Вероятность отсутствует.", "ar": "مجموعة المقارنة غير مكتملة: تنقص سوابق مستقلة وأمثلة مضادة. تنطبق التعريفات على الجمع من 28 أكتوبر 2026، وليست عينة تاريخية مسجلة مسبقاً. لا احتمال متاح.", "fa": "مجموعه مقایسه ناقص است: سوابق مستقل و مثال‌های نقض کم است. تعریف‌ها برای گردآوری از ۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۶ هستند، نه نمونه تاریخی از پیش ثبت‌شده. احتمالی در دسترس نیست."}, "chainPrecedents": [], "links": [{"id": "sea-transits", "from": "red-sea-proxy", "to": "suez-transits", "mechanism": {"en": "Ship attacks can cause operators to divert away from the Red Sea, reducing traffic through its chokepoints.", "uk": "Атаки на судна можуть змусити операторів оминати Червоне море й скоротити рух через протоки.", "ru": "Атаки на суда могут заставить операторов обходить Красное море и сократить движение через проливы.", "ar": "قد تدفع الهجمات على السفن المشغلين لتجنب البحر الأحمر فتقل حركة المضائق.", "fa": "حمله به کشتی‌ها ممکن است اپراتورها را به دوری از دریای سرخ و کاهش تردد از تنگه‌ها وادارد."}, "definition": {"cause": "At least 3 maritime dossiers in 30 days; verify each is Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb before enrolment. Country filter YE/ER/DJ is a screening proxy, not a sea boundary.", "effect": "Mean daily Suez vessel transit count over first 30 days drops at least 20% against preceding 30 days.", "window_days": 30, "fixedOn": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Prospective non-overlapping country episodes; start at first eligible trigger after a 60-day quiet period. Include all qualifying episodes and missing observations separately; never count missing as false."}, "sources": [{"url": "https://www.eia.gov/TodayinEnergy/detail.php?id=63446", "publisher": "U.S. EIA", "date": "2024-10-11", "quote": "decreased by more than 50% in the first eight months of 2024", "license": "Public domain EIA text; third-party Vortexa data rights reserved; no underlying dataset redistributed", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php"}, {"url": "https://sis.gov.eg/en/economy-investment/economy/egyptian-economy-sectors/suez-canal/", "publisher": "Egypt State Information Service, reporting Suez Canal Authority", "date": "undated; reporting 2023–2024", "quote": "vessel traffic dropped by 50% to 13,213 ships", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Short attributed excerpt and facts only.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; full official summary read", "dateNote": "Page gives reporting years; no publication day verified."}], "cases": [], "comparisonReady": false, "researchExamples": [{"note": "2024-01 to 2024-08: EIA reports Bab el-Mandeb oil flows of 4.0 million b/d versus 8.7 million b/d in full-year 2023. This is oil volume and mismatched reference periods, not the defined Suez vessel-count outcome.", "source": {"url": "https://www.eia.gov/TodayinEnergy/detail.php?id=63446", "publisher": "U.S. EIA", "date": "2024-10-11", "quote": "decreased by more than 50% in the first eight months of 2024", "license": "Public domain EIA text; third-party Vortexa data rights reserved; no underlying dataset redistributed", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php"}}, {"date": "2024-12-31", "label": "Official annual Suez vessel counts", "measured": "2023: 26,434 vessels; 2024: 13,213 vessels, 50% fewer, as reported by SIS from SCA.", "note": "Full SIS summary read. Annual counts are not the first and preceding 30-day means. One Red Sea campaign, not independent positive cases. Direct SCA PDFs quarantined because initial robots checks conflicted (403/404).", "source": {"url": "https://sis.gov.eg/en/economy-investment/economy/egyptian-economy-sectors/suez-canal/", "publisher": "Egypt State Information Service, reporting Suez Canal Authority", "date": "undated; reporting 2023–2024", "quote": "vessel traffic dropped by 50% to 13,213 ships", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Short attributed excerpt and facts only.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; full official summary read", "dateNote": "Page gives reporting years; no publication day verified."}}, {"date": "2023-11-30", "label": "Same-crisis counterpoint: November 2023 traffic increased year on year", "measured": "Anadolu’s 5 December 2023 account: 2,264 ships in November 2023 versus 2,171 in November 2022; +4.3%.", "note": "A measured early-crisis counterpoint, not observed:false under the registered exact preceding-30-day definition. Attacks began late in the calendar month, so most of this observation precedes the escalation; do not combine with 2024 as an independent crisis. Original SCA report remains quarantined.", "source": {"url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/was-suez-canal-affected-by-red-sea-tension-in-november/3073472", "publisher": "Anadolu, reporting Suez Canal Authority", "date": "2023-12-05", "quote": "2,264 ships crossed the waterway in both directions in November 2023", "license": "Copyright Anadolu; no open licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no article redistribution.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; complete article read", "dateNote": "Page first published 5 December, updated 7 December 2023."}}, {"date": "2025-07-27", "label": "July 2025 resumed attacks: independent transit measurement, wrong window", "measured": "Lloyd’s List: Bab el-Mandeb July 14–27 392 transits versus 479 in preceding two weeks, reported -18%; Greek-affiliated vessels -40%. Magic Seas and Eternity C attacks dated July 6–7.", "note": "Renewed-attack candidate distinct from the single 2023–24 crisis; independence is not assumed. Both comparator periods follow July 6, are 14 days, and measure Bab el-Mandeb rather than Suez. The Greek-affiliated subset cannot replace all-vessel traffic. Not a positive case or a matched counterexample; third maritime dossier and exact 30-day Suez counts still absent.", "source": {"url": "https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1154456/China--and-Greece-linked-vessels-dominate-last-month%E2%80%99s-Bab-el-Mandeb-transits", "publisher": "Lloyd’s List / Bridget Diakun, using Lloyd’s List Intelligence data", "date": "2025-08-07", "quote": "392 transits recorded from July 14 to July 27, down 18% from 479", "license": "Copyright Lloyd’s List / Lloyd’s List Intelligence; article explicitly FREE TO READ, not open-licensed. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no proprietary AIS dataset redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}, "episodeGroup": "red-sea-renewed-attacks-2025-july"}], "evidenceGaps": ["Official SIS summary of SCA annual vessel counts read. Exact daily counts for first and preceding 30-day windows absent; annual declines are not eligible cases. Direct SCA reports quarantined after conflicting robots responses (403/404).", "Treat 2023–24 as one crisis. July 2025 is a candidate separate episode, not automatically part of one 2023–25 campaign: Lloyd’s List provides 392 versus 479 Bab el-Mandeb transits over successive 14-day periods, not the required first/preceding 30-day Suez counts. No matched counterexample or second positive enrolled.", "IMF PortWatch not used: prior robots 429; current main-site robots 404 does not authorise PortWatch or its terms. UNCTAD robots 403 respected. Match offshore triggers geographically before enrolment."], "rate": {"k": 0, "n": 0, "pct": null, "low": null, "high": null}}, {"id": "transits-freight", "from": "suez-transits", "to": "freight-rates", "mechanism": {"en": "Avoiding chokepoints adds sailing distance and time, increasing operating costs and potentially freight rates.", "uk": "Обхід проток збільшує відстань і час плавання, витрати та потенційно ставки фрахту.", "ru": "Обход проливов увеличивает расстояние и время плавания, затраты и потенциально ставки фрахта.", "ar": "يزيد تجنب المضائق مسافة الإبحار والوقت والتكاليف وقد يرفع أسعار الشحن.", "fa": "پرهیز از تنگه‌ها فاصله و زمان سفر و هزینه را افزایش می‌دهد و ممکن است نرخ حمل را بالا ببرد."}, "definition": {"cause": "A verified 20% drop in Suez transit counts in a non-overlapping 30-day period.", "effect": "Shanghai-Europe container spot freight index rises at least 20% from last pre-episode observation within 30 days; specify provider/licence before enrolment.", "window_days": 30, "fixedOn": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Prospective non-overlapping country episodes; start at first eligible trigger after a 60-day quiet period. Include all qualifying episodes and missing observations separately; never count missing as false."}, "sources": [{"url": "https://www.eia.gov/TodayinEnergy/detail.php?id=62263", "publisher": "U.S. EIA", "date": "2024-06-11", "quote": "about 15 days longer", "license": "Public domain EIA text; third-party Vortexa data rights reserved; no underlying dataset redistributed", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php"}, {"url": "https://www.xeneta.com/blog/container-rates-week3-record-high-spread-in-spot-rates-from-the-far-east-to-mediterranean", "publisher": "Xeneta", "date": "2024-01-19", "quote": "the average spot rate has increased by 181% from mid-December to USD 4 640 per FEU", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and a short attributed excerpt only; no article or underlying data redistribution.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; article path allowed; complete open article read"}], "cases": [], "comparisonReady": false, "researchExamples": [{"note": "2024-06-11: EIA route comparison gives about 15 days additional sailing from Arabian Sea to Europe via the Cape. This is a route-time comparison, not a dated freight-index outcome.", "source": {"url": "https://www.eia.gov/TodayinEnergy/detail.php?id=62263", "publisher": "U.S. EIA", "date": "2024-06-11", "quote": "about 15 days longer", "license": "Public domain EIA text; third-party Vortexa data rights reserved; no underlying dataset redistributed", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php"}}, {"date": "2024-01-19", "label": "Observed spot-rate rise during the first Red Sea crisis", "measured": "19 January 2024: Far East–North Europe average spot rate USD 4 640 per FEU, +181% from mid-December.", "note": "Observed source figures, not the 23 January forecast for 2 February. Route is Far East–North Europe, not the registered Shanghai–Europe index. No frozen provider/licence or exact eligible 30-day transit trigger; not enrolled. Same crisis as the SCA observations. Measured: 19 January 2024: Far East–North Europe average spot rate USD 4 640 per FEU, +181% from mid-December.", "source": {"url": "https://www.xeneta.com/blog/container-rates-week3-record-high-spread-in-spot-rates-from-the-far-east-to-mediterranean", "publisher": "Xeneta", "date": "2024-01-19", "quote": "the average spot rate has increased by 181% from mid-December to USD 4 640 per FEU", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and a short attributed excerpt only; no article or underlying data redistribution.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; article path allowed; complete open article read"}}, {"date": "2024-01-31", "label": "Candidate counterpoint: long-term freight fell", "measured": "January 2024: long-term XSI fell 6.2% to 148.0 points.", "note": "Not a spot-rate counterexample: the index covers long-term contracts and expiry of old contracts. Do not mix series to manufacture observed:false. Same Red Sea crisis, not independent. Measured: January 2024: long-term XSI fell 6.2% to 148.0 points.", "source": {"url": "https://www.xeneta.com/blog/xeneta-shipping-index-xsi-january2024", "publisher": "Xeneta", "date": "2024-01-31", "quote": "long term contracts fell by 6.2% in January", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and a short attributed excerpt only; no article or underlying data redistribution.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Article is headed January 31, 2024 in the open page."}}], "evidenceGaps": ["Open Xeneta observations now read, but Far East–North Europe is not the fixed Shanghai–Europe index; freeze the correct provider and establish reuse terms before enrolment.", "Exact qualifying 30-day Suez trigger, two independent observed spot-rate cases and one same-series non-rise counterexample absent. Long-term XSI decline cannot serve as a spot-rate failure."], "rate": {"k": 0, "n": 0, "pct": null, "low": null, "high": null}}, {"id": "freight-food", "from": "freight-rates", "to": "food-prices", "mechanism": {"en": "Higher shipping costs may raise food import costs; harvests, currencies and subsidies can offset or amplify the effect.", "uk": "Дорожчі перевезення можуть збільшити вартість імпорту їжі; врожаї, валюти й субсидії змінюють ефект.", "ru": "Дорогие перевозки могут повысить стоимость импорта еды; урожаи, валюты и субсидии меняют эффект.", "ar": "قد ترفع تكاليف الشحن واردات الغذاء؛ وقد تعوّض المحاصيل والعملات والدعم الأثر أو تضخمه.", "fa": "هزینه بالاتر حمل ممکن است هزینه واردات غذا را افزایش دهد؛ برداشت، ارز و یارانه می‌تواند اثر را کم یا زیاد کند."}, "definition": {"cause": "A verified 20% Shanghai-Europe freight-index increase in a 30-day period.", "effect": "FAO Food Price Index first or second published monthly observation rises at least 5% versus last pre-episode month within 90 days. Global commodity index is not a local consumer price or hunger indicator.", "window_days": 90, "fixedOn": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Prospective non-overlapping country episodes; start at first eligible trigger after a 60-day quiet period. Include all qualifying episodes and missing observations separately; never count missing as false."}, "sources": [{"url": "https://knowledge-for-policy.ec.europa.eu/publication/food-price-monitoring-analysis-fpma-bulletin-2-march-2024_en", "publisher": "European Commission / JRC Knowledge4Policy, summarising FAO FPMA", "date": "2024-03-19", "quote": "through higher food import costs", "license": "EC website reuse policy; FAO-authored summary: underlying third-party rights must be confirmed before bulk reuse", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; source read directly; see ec-food.txt in local audit"}], "cases": [], "comparisonReady": false, "researchExamples": [{"note": "EIA establishes the shipping-cost mechanism only. It does not establish freight-to-food pass-through. FAO access blocked; no source-verified food-price observation enrolled.", "source": {"url": "https://www.eia.gov/TodayinEnergy/detail.php?id=62263", "publisher": "U.S. EIA", "date": "2024-06-11", "quote": "about 15 days longer", "license": "Public domain EIA text; third-party Vortexa data rights reserved; no underlying dataset redistributed", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/about/copyrights_reuse.php"}}, {"note": "February 2024: the EC/FAO summary reports declining international cereal prices despite shipping disruptions, while domestic staples remained high. This is a qualitative counterpoint, not the measured 5% FAO-index counterexample required by the definition.", "source": {"url": "https://knowledge-for-policy.ec.europa.eu/publication/food-price-monitoring-analysis-fpma-bulletin-2-march-2024_en", "publisher": "European Commission / JRC Knowledge4Policy, summarising FAO FPMA", "date": "2024-03-19", "quote": "through higher food import costs", "license": "EC website reuse policy; FAO-authored summary: underlying third-party rights must be confirmed before bulk reuse", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "200; path allowed; source read directly; see ec-food.txt in local audit"}}], "evidenceGaps": ["Mechanism is supported by an EC/FAO summary; confirm underlying FAO reuse rights and ingest a suitable import-price series.", "Two measured food-price precedents and at least one counterexample absent.", "FAO global index is only a candidate proxy for local import food prices; confirm indicator before collection."], "rate": {"k": 0, "n": 0, "pct": null, "low": null, "high": null}}], "activation": {"node": "red-sea-proxy", "window_days": 30, "count": 0, "previous": 0, "active": false, "ids": []}, "speculative": true}, {"id": "conflict-aviation", "status": "review", "title": {"en": "Conflict → aviation advisories → rerouting", "uk": "Конфлікт → авіаційні попередження → зміна маршрутів", "ru": "Конфликт → авиационные предупреждения → смена маршрутов", "ar": "النزاع ← نشرات الطيران ← تغيير المسارات", "fa": "درگیری ← هشدار هوانوردی ← تغییر مسیر"}, "reviewReason": {"en": "Comparison set incomplete: independent precedents and counterexamples are missing. Definitions apply to future collection from 28 October 2026, not a preregistered historical sample. No probability is available.", "uk": "Набір порівняння неповний: бракує незалежних прецедентів і контрприкладів. Визначення діють для збору з 28 жовтня 2026 року, а не для попередньо зареєстрованої історичної вибірки. Ймовірність відсутня.", "ru": "Набор сравнения неполон: не хватает независимых прецедентов и контрпримеров. Определения действуют для сбора с 28 октября 2026 года, а не для заранее зарегистрированной исторической выборки. Вероятность отсутствует.", "ar": "مجموعة المقارنة غير مكتملة: تنقص سوابق مستقلة وأمثلة مضادة. تنطبق التعريفات على الجمع من 28 أكتوبر 2026، وليست عينة تاريخية مسجلة مسبقاً. لا احتمال متاح.", "fa": "مجموعه مقایسه ناقص است: سوابق مستقل و مثال‌های نقض کم است. تعریف‌ها برای گردآوری از ۲۸ اکتبر ۲۰۲۶ هستند، نه نمونه تاریخی از پیش ثبت‌شده. احتمالی در دسترس نیست."}, "chainPrecedents": [], "links": [{"id": "conflict-advisory", "from": "conflict-proxy", "to": "aviation-advisories", "mechanism": {"en": "Conflict and active air defences can create civil aviation risks that prompt advisories or temporary closures.", "uk": "Конфлікт і робота ППО можуть створити ризики для цивільної авіації та спричинити попередження або закриття.", "ru": "Конфликт и работа ПВО могут создать риски для гражданской авиации и вызвать предупреждения или закрытия.", "ar": "قد يخلق النزاع والدفاع الجوي مخاطر للطيران المدني تستدعي نشرات أو إغلاقات مؤقتة.", "fa": "درگیری و پدافند فعال ممکن است برای هوانوردی غیرنظامی خطر ایجاد کند و به هشدار یا تعطیلی موقت بینجامد."}, "definition": {"cause": "At least 3 conflict dossiers in 7 days in IR/IL/IQ/JO/LB; independently verify drone involvement and common escalation before enrolment.", "effect": "New EASA avoid-airspace CZIB or state NOTAM closure in affected FIR within 7 days; count episode once, even if multiple advisories.", "window_days": 7, "fixedOn": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Prospective non-overlapping country episodes; start at first eligible trigger after a 60-day quiet period. Include all qualifying episodes and missing observations separately; never count missing as false."}, "sources": [{"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/newsroom-and-events/news/latest-developments-middle-east", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2024-04-14", "quote": "All of these NOTAMs have expired", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer"}, {"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs/2025-02-r2", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2025-06-30", "quote": "On 24 June 2025, a ceasefire was agreed upon", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer"}, {"url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-statement-on-irans-attack-against-israel-14-april-2024", "publisher": "G7 / UK Prime Minister’s Office", "date": "2024-04-14", "quote": "Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel.", "license": "Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "licenseUrl": "https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/"}], "cases": [], "comparisonReady": false, "researchExamples": [{"note": "2024-04-13/14: EASA confirms temporary NOTAM closures in Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Iran and expiry on 14 April. Short-lived closures do not prove persistent restrictions.", "source": {"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/newsroom-and-events/news/latest-developments-middle-east", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2024-04-14", "quote": "All of these NOTAMs have expired", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer"}}, {"note": "2025-06-13: EASA regional CZIB follows escalation; ceasefire on 24 June 2025. Need original first-issue archived bulletin and independent trigger chronology for a fixed-sample case.", "source": {"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs/2025-02-r2", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2025-06-30", "quote": "On 24 June 2025, a ceasefire was agreed upon", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit.", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer"}}, {"date": "2024-04-14", "label": "Iran/Israel April 2024: temporary closures", "measured": "EASA 14 April 2024: NOTAM closures in 5 named airspaces (Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Iran), all expired that day.", "note": "Positive authority outcome within the escalation, but do not infer a new EASA avoid-airspace CZIB. Three archive-trigger dossiers / same-escalation eligibility have not been reconstructed; kept outside the calibrated cases. Measured: EASA 14 April 2024: NOTAM closures in 5 named airspaces (Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Iran), all expired that day.", "source": {"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/newsroom-and-events/news/latest-developments-middle-east", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2024-04-14", "quote": "All of these NOTAMs have expired in the course of today, April 14).", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer"}}, {"date": "2025-06-13", "label": "Iran/Israel June 2025: first-issue date verified", "measured": "CZIB 2025-02 R2: issue 13/06/2025, revision 30/06/2025, valid until 07/07/2025; 5 affected FIRs.", "note": "The original 13 June announcement and revised bulletin were both read. No counterexample implied by pre-existing advisories. Independent drone-trigger source DPPA and UK Parliament were blocked at robots; trigger threshold remains unresolved, so not enrolled. Measured: CZIB 2025-02 R2: issue 13/06/2025, revision 30/06/2025, valid until 07/07/2025; 5 affected FIRs.", "source": {"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs/2025-02-r2", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2025-06-30", "quote": "13/06/2025", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer", "dateNote": "Revision date June 30; first issue date June 13 explicitly shown. Withdrawn now; historical bulletin, not current guidance."}}, {"date": "2024-10-03", "label": "FAA: existing prohibition and NOTAM history", "measured": "FAA SFAR 117 extension effective 3 October 2024; expiration moved October 31, 2024 → October 31, 2027. FAA traces original Tehran prohibition to KICZ A0002/20 on January 7, 2020.", "note": "FAA describes Iranian deconfliction NOTAMs before April 13 and during April 19, 2024, plus January 2024 UAS/missile operations. An existing FAA prohibition is not a new within-7-day warning, and cannot prove no EASA or state notice. Not an observed:false case. Measured: FAA SFAR 117 extension effective 3 October 2024; expiration moved October 31, 2024 → October 31, 2027. FAA traces original Tehran prohibition to KICZ A0002/20 on January 7, 2020.", "source": {"url": "https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/us_restrictions/doc/Special-Federal-Aviation-Regulation-SFAR-117.pdf", "publisher": "FAA / Federal Register", "date": "2024-10-03", "quote": "from October 31, 2024, to October 31, 2027.", "license": "U.S. government text: public domain; no third-party data redistributed", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Full 7-page Federal Register PDF read; unrelated rules occur before/after SFAR 117."}}, {"date": "2022-02-24", "label": "Ukraine/Russia: historical bulletin verified, outside trigger geography", "measured": "CZIB 2022-01 issued February 24, 2022; revision 1 at 12:50 UTC, valid until May 24. Bulletin cites 3 state NOTAMs: Ukraine A0576/22, Russia U0104/22, Moldova A0043/22.", "note": "Accessible official DCA notification reproduces EASA bulletin. RU/UA/MD/BY are outside fixed IR/IL/IQ/JO/LB trigger countries; cannot enrol this as a positive or counterexample for conflict-advisory. Existing notices cannot establish absence of new notices.", "source": {"url": "https://theregistryofaruba.com/news/urgent-notice-dca-of-aruba-official-notification-easa-czib-2022-001-conflict-zone-information-bulletin/", "publisher": "Aruba Department of Civil Aviation via The Registry of Aruba, reproducing EASA CZIB 2022-01", "date": "2022-02-24", "quote": "Revision no 1 dated 24 February 2022, 12:50 UTC", "license": "Copyright retained; no open licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no full article, images or underlying dataset redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Dated DCA letter and historical bulletin; website also displays update November 14, 2024. Not current operational guidance."}, "episodeGroup": "ukraine-full-scale-invasion-2022"}], "evidenceGaps": ["EASA first issue on 13 June 2025 and 5 temporary state closures in April 2024 verified. Drone-trigger / ≥3 dossier eligibility and independent episode selection still need reconstruction.", "No complete 7-day authority-notice history for a qualified no-new-advisory escalation; absence from search is not observed:false.", "FAA SFAR/NOTAM history was read, but an unchanged FAA prohibition does not establish absence of EASA or state NOTAMs. April and June observations are research notes, not enrolled cases.", "Ukraine/Russia historical EASA issuance verified via Aruba DCA notification, but fixed trigger geography excludes those countries. April 2024 and June 2025 still require three distinct eligible archive dossiers; weapons count is not dossier count."], "rate": {"k": 0, "n": 0, "pct": null, "low": null, "high": null}}, {"id": "advisory-rerouting", "from": "aviation-advisories", "to": "aviation-rerouting", "mechanism": {"en": "Airspace restrictions force operators to choose available corridors, potentially rerouting civil flights.", "uk": "Обмеження повітряного простору змушують операторів обирати доступні коридори та змінювати маршрути.", "ru": "Ограничения воздушного пространства вынуждают операторов выбирать доступные коридоры и менять маршруты.", "ar": "تدفع قيود المجال الجوي المشغلين لاختيار ممرات متاحة وقد تغير مسارات الرحلات.", "fa": "محدودیت فضای هوایی اپراتورها را به انتخاب مسیرهای در دسترس و تغییر مسیر پروازها وامی‌دارد."}, "definition": {"cause": "A new avoid-airspace advisory or state closure for affected FIR after a verified regional escalation.", "effect": "At least 10 civil flights explicitly attributed to conflict rerouting by the network authority within 7 days; exclude weather reroutes and cancellations.", "window_days": 7, "fixedOn": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Prospective non-overlapping country episodes; start at first eligible trigger after a 60-day quiet period. Include all qualifying episodes and missing observations separately; never count missing as false."}, "sources": [{"url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2024-04/eurocontrol-european-aviation-overview-20240419.pdf", "publisher": "EUROCONTROL", "date": "2024-04-17", "quote": "did lead to many re-routings", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; reuse terms for this report unconfirmed; short attributed excerpt only; review required", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit."}, {"url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2025-07/eurocontrol-network-operations-report-june-2025.pdf", "publisher": "EUROCONTROL", "date": "2025-07-08", "quote": "EASA issued on 13 June a regional CZIB", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; reuse terms for this report unconfirmed; short attributed excerpt only; review required", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit."}, {"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs/2025-02-r2", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2025-06-30", "quote": "13/06/2025", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer", "dateNote": "Revision date June 30; first issue date June 13 explicitly shown. Withdrawn now; historical bulletin, not current guidance."}, {"url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-flash-briefing-2025-week-24", "publisher": "EUROCONTROL Network Manager", "date": "2025-06-18", "quote": "around 1,000 flights re-routed via Egypt/Cyprus", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; no open reuse licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no underlying flight data redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Published June 18; Middle East section explicitly dates the flight impacts to June 13, 2025; whole HTML briefing read."}], "cases": [{"date": "2025-06-13", "label": "Iran/Israel June 2025: approximately 1,000 conflict reroutes on closure day", "observed": true, "measured": "EUROCONTROL Flash Briefing published June 18 explicitly reports June 13: 1,800 flights to/from Europe impacted, 650 cancelled and around 1,000 re-routed via Egypt/Cyprus and South-East/Central Europe. Count only the approximately 1,000 conflict reroutes; the 650 cancellations are excluded. EASA regional CZIB issued June 13; observed effect on same date (0 elapsed days, within 7 days).", "source": {"url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-flash-briefing-2025-week-24", "publisher": "EUROCONTROL Network Manager", "date": "2025-06-18", "quote": "around 1,000 flights re-routed via Egypt/Cyprus", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; no open reuse licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no underlying flight data redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Published June 18; Middle East section explicitly dates the flight impacts to June 13, 2025; whole HTML briefing read."}, "triggerSources": [{"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/newsroom-and-events/news/easa-publishes-czib-airspace-iran-iraq-israel-jordan-and-lebanon", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2025-06-13", "quote": "has published a Conflict Zone Information Bulletin on the Middle East", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer", "accessNote": "Historical HTML/text from earlier same-day audit read locally; live EASA returned 429 this round. No retry or alternative EASA endpoint used after the 429."}], "episodeGroup": "iran-israel-2025-june", "note": "Retrospective measured cause/effect precedent; June 25 repeat briefing is the same episode, not a second independent success. Prior 60-day quiet-period and exhaustive episode selection still need audit; no calibrated rate or causal certainty claimed. Approximate counts are not forced to sum to 1,800.", "observationWindow": {"start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-19", "effectDate": "2025-06-13"}, "comparisonEligible": false}], "comparisonReady": false, "researchExamples": [{"note": "2024-04-17 overview covering 8–14 April: reports many reroutings after closures on 13 April, but does not give a rerouting count. Network traffic grew 2.7% week-on-week; broad traffic decline is not interchangeable with rerouting.", "source": {"url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2024-04/eurocontrol-european-aviation-overview-20240419.pdf", "publisher": "EUROCONTROL", "date": "2024-04-17", "quote": "did lead to many re-routings", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; reuse terms for this report unconfirmed; short attributed excerpt only; review required", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit."}}, {"note": "2025-07-08 report: documents rerouting after 12–13 June closures; network-wide June flights total 1,037,256. That monthly network total is not a count of conflict reroutes. The 513 reroutes elsewhere in this report concern weather and must be excluded. Round 2: a separate June 18 Flash Briefing now supplies around 1,000 June 13 conflict reroutes; see the single enrolled retrospective case.", "source": {"url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2025-07/eurocontrol-network-operations-report-june-2025.pdf", "publisher": "EUROCONTROL", "date": "2025-07-08", "quote": "EASA issued on 13 June a regional CZIB", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; reuse terms for this report unconfirmed; short attributed excerpt only; review required", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "robots": "Allowed path under robots.txt checked 2026-10-28; see local access audit."}}, {"date": "2024-04-14", "label": "Short-lived closure does not establish reroute count", "measured": "EASA: closures expired April 14, 2024; 5 named airspaces affected.", "note": "Zero measured conflict-reroute counts supplied. Expiry of a NOTAM is not evidence that fewer than 10 flights rerouted. Neither cancellations nor network totals meet the effect definition. Measured: EASA: closures expired April 14, 2024; 5 named airspaces affected.", "source": {"url": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/newsroom-and-events/news/latest-developments-middle-east", "publisher": "EASA", "date": "2024-04-14", "quote": "All of these NOTAMs have expired in the course of today, April 14).", "license": "Reproduction authorised with source acknowledgement, unless otherwise stated", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "licenseUrl": "https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/copyright-disclaimer"}}, {"date": "2026-03-31", "label": "2026 crisis: later estimate outside seven-day window", "measured": "EUROCONTROL March 31: 1,150 rerouted flights/day, 206,000 additional km/day; hostilities began February 28, 2026.", "note": "Later network estimate, not a dated count within February 28–March 6. Underlying paper describes conditional continuing impacts; do not promote its estimate to a measured first-week success. No second precedent enrolled.", "source": {"url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/impact-current-middle-east-crisis-european-aviation", "publisher": "EUROCONTROL", "date": "2026-03-31", "quote": "1,150 flights impacted every day in terms of reroutings", "license": "Copyright EUROCONTROL; no open reuse licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no underlying flight data redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28"}, "episodeGroup": "middle-east-2026-february"}, {"date": "2024-10-01", "label": "October 2024 media count: 81 diverted flights, not April", "measured": "Euronews update October 2, 2024 reports 81 flights diverted by 16 airlines on October 1; Istanbul received 19.", "note": "Explicit conflict-diversion count exceeds 10 on closure day. Kept outside cases because the fixed definition requires network-authority attribution; report relies on Flightradar24 and airline reporting. The page was first published April 15 but updated October 2: its 81-flight figure refers to October 1, not April 13–14. Independent episode selection / prior quiet-period audit also remains open.", "source": {"url": "https://www.euronews.com/2024/10/02/iran-attack-middle-eastern-airspace-closure-could-see-continuing-flight-delays", "publisher": "Euronews / Saskia O’Donoghue and Ruth Wright", "date": "2024-10-02", "quote": "In total, 81 flights were diverted by 16 airlines on Tuesday.", "license": "Copyright Euronews; no open licence verified. Facts and short attributed excerpt only; no flight-tracking dataset or media redistributed.", "accessed": "2026-10-28", "dateNote": "Initial publication April 15; update October 2 explicitly covers October 1 missile attack. Full article body read."}, "episodeGroup": "iran-israel-2024-october"}], "evidenceGaps": ["One retrospective measured positive now recorded: EUROCONTROL approximately 1,000 reroutes on June 13, 2025, excluding 650 cancellations. Second independent within-7-day authority count and fully observed counterexample absent.", "June 2025 quiet-period / complete episode-selection audit remains open; comparisonEligible and comparisonReady are false. June 25 repeats the same crisis, not another case.", "March 31, 2026 estimate of 1,150 reroutes/day is outside the first seven days of the February 28 escalation. EUROCONTROL report-specific reuse terms remain unconfirmed.", "October 1, 2024 media measurement: 81 diversions / 16 airlines; authority attribution still missing under fixed definition. Do not misdate this October figure to April from the rolling article’s original publication date."], "rate": {"k": 1, "n": 1, "pct": null, "low": null, "high": null}}], "activation": {"node": "conflict-proxy", "window_days": 7, "count": 4, "previous": 1, "active": true, "ids": ["auto-ir-2026-10-25-85ba8ed697", "auto-iq-2026-10-24-495807418b", "auto-lb-2026-10-23-431d9b7354", "auto-lb-2026-10-23-3c6538b3fc"]}, "speculative": true}], "scoreboard": {"open": [], "resolved": [], "overdue": [], "hits": 0, "brier": null}, "method": {"minimumCases": 5, "interval": "Wilson 95%", "chainProbabilitiesMultiplied": false}}