{
 "publisher": "DroneLedger",
 "site": "https://droneincidents.com",
 "generated": "2026-10-17T02:28:59+00:00",
 "release": "20261017T022859475468-8c8796",
 "license": {
  "name": "CC BY 4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "DroneLedger (droneincidents.com)",
  "excludes": "Quoted source passages and linked articles remain the copyright of their publishers; they are included as short quotations for verification. Linked media and satellite images remain the rights holders' property; no image or video licence is granted by this dataset. Fonts (SIL OFL) and map data (Natural Earth, public domain) keep their own terms. City and region names in automatically published dossiers are checked against GeoNames (geonames.org, CC BY 4.0). Drone drawings and animations are schematic illustrations of a type, not evidence about any incident."
 },
 "assessmentNote": "DroneLedger assessment, not a finding. Editorial likelihood bands, not calibrated statistical confidence intervals. Unknown has no numeric probability. Outcomes are attributed reports; no totals or inference of intent from a hit.",
 "assessmentScale": {
  "version": "di-estimative-v1",
  "levels": {
   "almost_certain": {
    "low": 95,
    "high": 99
   },
   "very_likely": {
    "low": 80,
    "high": 95
   },
   "likely": {
    "low": 55,
    "high": 80
   },
   "roughly_even_chance": {
    "low": 45,
    "high": 55
   },
   "unlikely": {
    "low": 20,
    "high": 45
   },
   "very_unlikely": {
    "low": 5,
    "high": 20
   },
   "almost_no_chance": {
    "low": 1,
    "high": 5
   },
   "unknown": {
    "low": null,
    "high": null
   }
  }
 },
 "evidenceNote": "Each dossier separates three claims: drone presence, impact and attribution, each with its own evidence state and supporting sources. 'reported' means a source describes the claim without sufficient identification evidence; claims by parties to a conflict are never 'confirmed' on their own. Counts reflect dossiers in this curated archive, not all incidents worldwide. windowStart/windowEnd are reporting-window calendar bounds, not individual event days; legacy date remains the compatibility/sorting date for such records.",
 "locationNote": "lat/lon are the dossier's own approximate coordinates (see locationPrecision) and are empty when the incident location is unknown. referencePoint {lat, lon, level, name} is a display reference only: a fixed point in the named city (GeoNames), region (its administrative seat), sea or country (Natural Earth label point), derived at build time. It is not a geolocation, not an estimate of the incident location and may change when the dossier's place becomes more precise: reference point; incident location unknown.",
 "detailsNote": "media, operationalEffects, followUp and archiveEntity are editorial, source-indexed additions. Media is publisher-link only, has its own evidence status and never establishes drone presence or attribution. Debunked original-media links are removed; archived revisions omit media references. archivePattern is computed from mapped published event records at generated time, not a worldwide incident count. Null asOf means not established; publication time is not substituted.",
 "dataset": {
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23345422",
  "url": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23345422",
  "note": "Citable weekly snapshot (CSV + JSON) archived on Zenodo; this DOI always resolves to the latest version."
 },
 "howToCite": "Cite the dossier URL and revision, e.g. DroneLedger, “Drone report in Kyiv, Ukraine”, dossier auto-ua-2026-10-17-595b0ef7cb, revision 2, updated 2026-10-17. https://droneincidents.com/incident/auto-ua-2026-10-17-595b0ef7cb/",
 "incident": {
  "id": "lithuania-gerbera-incursion-2025-07-10",
  "title": "Lithuania reports Gerbera airspace violation on 10 July",
  "place": "Vilnius district",
  "country": "Lithuania",
  "countryCode": "LT",
  "date": "2025-07-10",
  "dateKind": "event",
  "scope": "single",
  "category": "conflict",
  "droneStatus": "reported",
  "impactStatus": "reported",
  "attributionStatus": "none",
  "lat": 54.8,
  "lon": 25.3,
  "locationPrecision": "region",
  "summary": "Lithuania reported a Gerbera drone airspace violation on 10 July 2025. The aircraft was found crashed near Šumskas in Vilnius district.",
  "impact": "An airspace violation and crash were reported. No injury or property-damage assessment is established here.",
  "evidence": "AeroTime relays an early official description as a makeshift aircraft, with Gerbera only an image-based suggestion. LRT/BNS reports the later ministerial Gerbera identification. Both share Lithuanian official sources. A later VSD assessment describes accidental entry.",
  "unknown": "The operator is not identified here. LRT reports the minister initially lacked evidence of intentional entry; the later Lithuanian intelligence assessment describes entry as accidental. No independent technical assessment by Codex. The marker represents Vilnius district.",
  "attribution": "No operator is assigned. Lithuanian officials described the aircraft as Russian-made; this is not an attribution of operational responsibility.",
  "sources": [
   {
    "label": "LRT/BNS: diplomatic protest and uncertain intent",
    "url": "https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2612108/lithuania-hands-in-protest-note-to-belarus-over-gerbera-drone-airspace-violation",
    "published": "2025-07-17",
    "family": "bns"
   },
   {
    "label": "AeroTime: initial official reports and crash",
    "url": "https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/flying-object-mistaken-for-shahed-drone-enters-lithuania",
    "published": "2025-07-10",
    "family": "aerotime"
   }
  ],
  "timeline": [
   {
    "date": "2025-07-10",
    "text": "Lithuania reports a Gerbera airspace violation and crash.",
    "source": 0
   }
  ],
  "droneStatusSources": [
   0,
   1
  ],
  "impactStatusSources": [
   0,
   1
  ],
  "attributionSources": [],
  "droneTypes": [
   {
    "asReported": "Russian-made Gerbera",
    "type": "gerbera",
    "count": null,
    "countMetric": null,
    "sourceIndex": 0
   }
  ],
  "claims": [
   {
    "id": "official-identification",
    "axis": "drone",
    "statement": "LRT/BNS reports the defence minister’s Gerbera identification.",
    "quote": "confirmed on LRT RADIO that it was a Russian-made Gerbera",
    "claimant": "Lithuanian defence minister via LRT/BNS",
    "originId": "lt-defence-minister-lrt-20250710",
    "relay": "relayed",
    "assessment": "supports",
    "note": "Later official identification, distinct from initial uncertainty.",
    "sourceIndex": 0,
    "quoteCheckedAt": "2026-10-17",
    "quoteTranslation": {}
   },
   {
    "id": "reported-crash",
    "axis": "impact",
    "statement": "AeroTime reports the crash in Lithuania.",
    "quote": "The aircraft crashed near the closed Shumsk border checkpoint in Lithuania",
    "claimant": "AeroTime relaying Lithuanian official reports",
    "originId": "lt-official-crash-20250710",
    "relay": "relayed",
    "assessment": "supports",
    "note": "Initial report; no independent technical authentication.",
    "sourceIndex": 1,
    "quoteCheckedAt": "2026-10-17",
    "quoteTranslation": {}
   }
  ],
  "review": "editor",
  "checkedAt": "2026-10-16",
  "autoCheckedAt": null,
  "updatedAt": "2026-10-17",
  "revision": 1,
  "series": [],
  "windowStart": null,
  "windowEnd": null,
  "windowBasis": null,
  "assessment": null,
  "outcome": [],
  "assessment_scale_version": null,
  "assessment_operator_subject": null,
  "assessment_operator_level": null,
  "assessment_operator_range_low": null,
  "assessment_operator_range_high": null,
  "assessment_target_subject": null,
  "assessment_target_level": null,
  "assessment_target_range_low": null,
  "assessment_target_range_high": null,
  "assessment_droneType_subject": null,
  "assessment_droneType_level": null,
  "assessment_droneType_range_low": null,
  "assessment_droneType_range_high": null,
  "media": [],
  "operationalEffects": [],
  "followUp": [],
  "archiveEntity": null,
  "namedLocation": null,
  "publisherMedia": [],
  "reportTiming": null,
  "archivePattern": null,
  "impactReports": [],
  "corroboration": "curated",
  "interceptionReported": {
   "evidenceState": "reported",
   "note": "Official aggregate claims, not independently verified kills. Parts are included only when explicitly sourced and sum to the reported total. Catalogue countermeasures are not incident evidence.",
   "counts": []
  },
  "referencePoint": null,
  "labels": {
   "category": "Armed conflict",
   "droneStatus": "Reported",
   "impactStatus": "Reported",
   "attributionStatus": "Not established"
  },
  "url": "https://droneincidents.com/incident/lithuania-gerbera-incursion-2025-07-10/",
  "citation": "DroneLedger, “Lithuania reports Gerbera airspace violation on 10 July”, dossier lithuania-gerbera-incursion-2025-07-10, revision 1, updated 2026-10-17. https://droneincidents.com/incident/lithuania-gerbera-incursion-2025-07-10/",
  "history": [
   {
    "revision": 1,
    "date": "2026-10-17",
    "at": "2026-10-17T01:18:13.565+00:00",
    "note": "Curated dossier created after checking the cited sources line by line."
   }
  ],
  "costIllustrations": {
   "note": "Illustrative multiplication per claim: reported count x published third-party unit-cost estimate. Not an estimate of attack cost, materiel lost or damage. Rows are never summed: they may describe the same drones (launched/intercepted/impacted) or come from different claimants. 'Intercepted' does not necessarily mean destroyed. The linkage and arithmetic are DroneLedger's; unit-cost figures carry wide uncertainty.",
   "rows": [
    {
     "asReported": "Russian-made Gerbera",
     "type": "gerbera",
     "count": null,
     "countMetric": null,
     "sourceIndex": 0,
     "unitCostUsd": {
      "low": 10000,
      "high": 10000,
      "per": "aircraft",
      "basis": "reported",
      "year": 2025,
      "source": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/46692"
     },
     "illustrativeProductUsd": null,
     "notComputedBecause": [
      "low catalogue confidence",
      "no reported count"
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 }
}