{
 "publisher": "DroneLedger",
 "site": "https://droneincidents.com",
 "generated": "2026-10-15T21:51:35+00:00",
 "release": "20261015T215135433783-da8a1a",
 "license": {
  "name": "CC BY 4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "DroneLedger (droneincidents.com)",
  "excludes": "Quoted source passages and linked articles remain the copyright of their publishers; they are included as short quotations for verification. Linked media and satellite images remain the rights holders' property; no image or video licence is granted by this dataset. Fonts (SIL OFL) and map data (Natural Earth, public domain) keep their own terms. City and region names in automatically published dossiers are checked against GeoNames (geonames.org, CC BY 4.0). Drone drawings and animations are schematic illustrations of a type, not evidence about any incident."
 },
 "assessmentNote": "DroneLedger assessment, not a finding. Editorial likelihood bands, not calibrated statistical confidence intervals. Unknown has no numeric probability. Outcomes are attributed reports; no totals or inference of intent from a hit.",
 "assessmentScale": {
  "version": "di-estimative-v1",
  "levels": {
   "almost_certain": {
    "low": 95,
    "high": 99
   },
   "very_likely": {
    "low": 80,
    "high": 95
   },
   "likely": {
    "low": 55,
    "high": 80
   },
   "roughly_even_chance": {
    "low": 45,
    "high": 55
   },
   "unlikely": {
    "low": 20,
    "high": 45
   },
   "very_unlikely": {
    "low": 5,
    "high": 20
   },
   "almost_no_chance": {
    "low": 1,
    "high": 5
   },
   "unknown": {
    "low": null,
    "high": null
   }
  }
 },
 "evidenceNote": "Each dossier separates three claims: drone presence, impact and attribution, each with its own evidence state and supporting sources. 'reported' means a source describes the claim without sufficient identification evidence; claims by parties to a conflict are never 'confirmed' on their own. Counts reflect dossiers in this curated archive, not all incidents worldwide. windowStart/windowEnd are reporting-window calendar bounds, not individual event days; legacy date remains the compatibility/sorting date for such records.",
 "locationNote": "lat/lon are the dossier's own approximate coordinates (see locationPrecision) and are empty when the incident location is unknown. referencePoint {lat, lon, level, name} is a display reference only: a fixed point in the named city (GeoNames), region (its administrative seat), sea or country (Natural Earth label point), derived at build time. It is not a geolocation, not an estimate of the incident location and may change when the dossier's place becomes more precise: reference point; incident location unknown.",
 "detailsNote": "media, operationalEffects, followUp and archiveEntity are editorial, source-indexed additions. Media is publisher-link only, has its own evidence status and never establishes drone presence or attribution. Debunked original-media links are removed; archived revisions omit media references. archivePattern is computed from mapped published event records at generated time, not a worldwide incident count. Null asOf means not established; publication time is not substituted.",
 "dataset": {
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23345422",
  "url": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23345422",
  "note": "Citable weekly snapshot (CSV + JSON) archived on Zenodo; this DOI always resolves to the latest version."
 },
 "howToCite": "Cite the dossier URL and revision, e.g. DroneLedger, “Wine Trader hit off Romania; president says drones struck the ship”, dossier wine-trader-fire-off-romania-2026-10-15, revision 4, updated 2026-10-15. https://droneincidents.com/incident/wine-trader-fire-off-romania-2026-10-15/",
 "incident": {
  "id": "elsenborn-drone-report-2025-10-03",
  "title": "Police and Defence investigate suspected drones near Elsenborn camp",
  "place": "Bütgenbach, Liège province",
  "country": "Belgium",
  "countryCode": "BE",
  "date": "2025-10-03",
  "dateKind": "event",
  "scope": "single",
  "category": "military",
  "droneStatus": "reported",
  "impactStatus": "unknown",
  "attributionStatus": "none",
  "lat": 50.43,
  "lon": 6.2,
  "locationPrecision": "region",
  "summary": "Belgian local police and Defence reported suspected drone activity associated with Elsenborn military camp during the night of 2–3 October 2025. A judicial investigation followed.",
  "impact": "An investigation is documented; the cited accounts do not establish physical damage, casualties or a suspension of camp operations.",
  "evidence": "t-online relays the original Eifel Police interview with GrenzEcho; it is not a new police observation. Separately, the Defence minister describes the military unit report and judicial investigation in the official HTML parliamentary answer. These are distinct institutional accounts, not independent technical identification. Object counts vary in early reports and are not adopted.",
  "unknown": "German sightings do not establish the same objects or a cross-border route: t-online reports that Düren Police confirmed lights rather than drone identification. No final case outcome, responsible operator or motive is established in these sources.",
  "attribution": "No operator or responsible organisation established by these sources; no criminal charge or conviction is asserted.",
  "sources": [
   {
    "label": "t-online: Eifel police account relayed from GrenzEcho and military account from BRF",
    "url": "https://aachen.t-online.de/region/aachen/id_100943698/ostbelgien-drohnen-ueber-militaerlager-in-elsenborn-gesichtet.html",
    "published": "2025-10-06",
    "family": "t-online"
   },
   {
    "label": "Belgian Parliament: public HTML version of minister answer01.06",
    "url": "https://www.lachambre.be/doc/CCRI/html/56/ic227x.html",
    "published": "2025-10-22",
    "family": "belgian-defence"
   }
  ],
  "timeline": [
   {
    "date": "2025-10-22",
    "text": "Defence confirms the night-of 2–3 October report and ongoing judicial investigation in a public parliamentary answer.",
    "source": 1
   }
  ],
  "droneStatusSources": [
   0,
   1
  ],
  "impactStatusSources": [],
  "attributionSources": [],
  "droneTypes": [],
  "claims": [
   {
    "id": "local-police",
    "axis": "drone",
    "statement": "The local Eifel police patrol report is relayed by t-online.",
    "quote": "Die Beamten hätten daraufhin die zuständigen Behörden informiert.",
    "claimant": "Eifel Police via GrenzEcho",
    "originId": "eifel-police-20251003",
    "relay": "relayed",
    "assessment": "supports",
    "note": "Literal short passage checked in the original source; no independent confirmation inferred from republication.",
    "sourceIndex": 0,
    "quoteCheckedAt": "2026-10-15",
    "quoteTranslation": {}
   },
   {
    "id": "military-report",
    "axis": "drone",
    "statement": "The minister says the military unit reported observations.",
    "quote": "De betrokken eenheid heeft dit gemeld",
    "claimant": "Belgian Defence Minister",
    "originId": "belgian-defence-elsenborn-20251022",
    "relay": "direct",
    "assessment": "supports",
    "note": "Literal short passage checked in the original source; no independent confirmation inferred from republication.",
    "sourceIndex": 1,
    "quoteCheckedAt": "2026-10-15",
    "quoteTranslation": {}
   },
   {
    "id": "judicial-investigation",
    "axis": "impact",
    "statement": "The minister confirms a judicial investigation.",
    "quote": "Over het incident loopt momenteel een gerechtelijk onderzoek.",
    "claimant": "Belgian Defence Minister",
    "originId": "belgian-defence-elsenborn-20251022",
    "relay": "direct",
    "assessment": "context",
    "note": "Literal short passage checked in the original source; no independent confirmation inferred from republication.",
    "sourceIndex": 1,
    "quoteCheckedAt": "2026-10-15",
    "quoteTranslation": {}
   },
   {
    "id": "german-uncertainty",
    "axis": "drone",
    "statement": "German police do not confirm drone identification.",
    "quote": "Die Polizei Düren bestätigte hingegen nicht, dass es Drohnen gewesen seien",
    "claimant": "Düren Police",
    "originId": "dueren-police-202510",
    "relay": "relayed",
    "assessment": "context",
    "note": "Literal short passage checked in the original source; no independent confirmation inferred from republication.",
    "sourceIndex": 0,
    "quoteCheckedAt": "2026-10-15",
    "quoteTranslation": {}
   }
  ],
  "review": "editor",
  "checkedAt": "2026-10-15",
  "autoCheckedAt": null,
  "updatedAt": "2026-10-15",
  "revision": 1,
  "series": [],
  "windowStart": "2025-10-02",
  "windowEnd": "2025-10-03",
  "windowBasis": "explicit",
  "assessment": null,
  "outcome": [],
  "assessment_scale_version": null,
  "assessment_operator_subject": null,
  "assessment_operator_level": null,
  "assessment_operator_range_low": null,
  "assessment_operator_range_high": null,
  "assessment_target_subject": null,
  "assessment_target_level": null,
  "assessment_target_range_low": null,
  "assessment_target_range_high": null,
  "assessment_droneType_subject": null,
  "assessment_droneType_level": null,
  "assessment_droneType_range_low": null,
  "assessment_droneType_range_high": null,
  "media": [],
  "operationalEffects": [],
  "followUp": [],
  "archiveEntity": {
   "key": "elsenborn-military-camp",
   "kind": "infrastructure",
   "label": "Elsenborn military camp",
   "sourceIndex": 1
  },
  "namedLocation": null,
  "publisherMedia": [],
  "archivePattern": null,
  "impactReports": [],
  "corroboration": "curated",
  "interceptionReported": {
   "evidenceState": "reported",
   "note": "Official aggregate claims, not independently verified kills. Parts are included only when explicitly sourced and sum to the reported total. Catalogue countermeasures are not incident evidence.",
   "counts": []
  },
  "referencePoint": null,
  "labels": {
   "category": "Military site",
   "droneStatus": "Reported",
   "impactStatus": "Not established",
   "attributionStatus": "Not established"
  },
  "url": "https://droneincidents.com/incident/elsenborn-drone-report-2025-10-03/",
  "citation": "DroneLedger, “Police and Defence investigate suspected drones near Elsenborn camp”, dossier elsenborn-drone-report-2025-10-03, revision 1, updated 2026-10-15. https://droneincidents.com/incident/elsenborn-drone-report-2025-10-03/",
  "history": [
   {
    "revision": 1,
    "date": "2026-10-15",
    "at": "2026-10-15T19:39:17.507+00:00",
    "note": "Curated dossier created after checking the cited sources line by line."
   }
  ]
 }
}